By Bruce Wilson
As architects, we have the joy of gazing into the future and imagining what it might be like. At BWA, we lean on the deep work of others to inform our work. One landmark piece we rely on is a 2013 paper in Science called “The End of History Illusion” by psychologists Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel Gilbert, and Timothy Wilson. They asked more than 19,000 people aged 18–68 to reflect on how much they had changed in the past 10 years or expected to change in the next 10 years. Across all ages, people consistently believed they had changed a great deal in the preceding decade, but would change very little in the future decade.
In reality, future change proved just as significant as past change.
The result is a cognitive illusion: we simply underestimate how much we will continue to evolve. This illusion has practical consequences, from how people make financial commitments to how they imagine long-term happiness. And it offers an intriguing lens through which to consider the development trajectory of cities like Cape Town.
Underestimating Future Change
Looking back, Capetonians probably feel that much has changed over the past decade: the CBD and Atlantic Seaboard have densified dramatically; student accommodation is now an asset class; Uber and semigration are a thing, and severe drought and loadshedding have forced resilience planning into the mainstream.
The end of history illusion tricks us into assuming that the next decade will be calmer. However, just as individuals underestimate their future change, Cape Town in 2035 will almost certainly be more transformed than we may imagine now.
But Some Things Will Never Change
Another work we rely on is ‘What Will Not Change’. Authors Robert Greene and Morgan Housel have published excellent recent works on the predictability and repeatability of human behaviour. Much of our work will not change: the desire for a safe, desirable, well-designed place to call home and work is universal and eternal. Affordability will remain a key challenge, as will the basic intersection of supply and demand. We expect global demand for well-located property to persist, continuing the centuries-long pattern of foreign investment into Cape Town. The short-lived urban experiment in single zonings has all but been abandoned, and in turn, mixed-use development finds policy favour and lifestyle demand again.
And, lest we forget, this is Africa: informal housing and economies will continue to shape Cape Town’s trajectory. Informality expands faster than formal planning can accommodate, straining infrastructure and governance. However, as the brilliant GG Alcock clearly points out, informality sustains livelihoods and provides adaptive resilience during crises.
Supply Constraints Will Intensify
The supply chain is creaking. Approval processes are lengthening, choking supply, and raising prices. Skills shortages, rising input costs, and diminished construction capacity limit the pace of delivery. For these reasons, we expect that supply will lag further behind demand, driving sharper affordability divides. We also hope that the recent appearance of foreign contractors in the Western Cape will normalise.
Just as people like to believe they have ‘arrived’ at their final self, cities often narrate themselves as settled. This is particularly the case in the misguided public consultation framework that underpins planning and heritage-related decision-making: quite simply, future residents and tenants that development will attract are not represented in these consultations. The result is an obvious bias for the incumbent. Accordingly, we expect nimbyism to intensify over the next decade, which will further choke supply and, unfortunately, erode community resilience.
The Crystal Ball
What are we preparing ourselves for? Cape Town in 2035 will likely feature persistent international demand reinforced by lifestyle migration and global capital. Yet supply will remain constrained by slow approvals and weak delivery capacity. The result will be a market defined by rising property values, sharper affordability challenges, new faces all around, and an urgent need for innovation.
If actors in the property space assume a decade of stability, Cape Town risks being caught underprepared for volatility and missing some of the risks and opportunities that will arise. The end of history illusion teaches us one core truth: today’s assumptions about stability are almost always wrong. Lifestyles and end-user demand will evolve more than we might expect. Policymakers’ priorities will shift in response to crises and opportunities. Developers and investors will face a market where demand consistently outpaces supply.
And, same as ever, it will be a helluva ride.
References
- Alcock, G. (2015). Kasinomics: African informal economies and the people who inhabit them. Bookstorm.
- Greene, R. (2018). The laws of human nature. Viking.
- Housel, M. (2023). Same as ever: A guide to what never changes. Harriman House.
- ISS African Futures. (2025, February 11). The Cape Mirage? Why Cape Town may become another dysfunctional African city. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-Cape-Mirage-Why-Cape-Town-may-become-another-dysfunctional-African-city
- Quoidbach, J., Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2013). The end of history illusion. Science, 339(6115), 96–98. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229294